Macro Economic Calendar: Week of March 3, 2025

The Setup & Where to Focus

Stocks come into March stumbling. 

• The S&P 500 lost 1.4% in February with a sharp drop in momentum stocks over the back half of the month. A macro growth scare spooked traders to some extent, but Q1 growth worries must be framed in the proper context. 

Last Friday, many hot takes were cast on the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDPNow model which estimates economic growth at negative 1.5%. 

• The truth is in the details, however, and a massive decline in net exports (the X in the ‘GDP = C + I + G + X’ equation) took down the Atlanta Fed model’s figure. 

• A record jump in January wholesale inventories due to stockpiling ahead of tariffs is unlikely to persist. Couple that unusual trade data with a consumer pullback to begin 2025, and we see what could be weak first-quarter US real GDP growth as a one-off rather than a sign of an imminent recession. 

• You could also throw in weather effects, including the January LA wildfires and a major southern snowstorm, as culprits to soft early-year consumer spending. Finally, households went on an epic holiday shopping spree to finish 2024, so a respite in the “C” GDP component is not surprising.

The other shocker late last week was the Oval Office scuffle between President Trump, Vice President Vance, and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 

• Trump said he could end Russia’s war on Ukraine in 15 minutes while on the campaign trail, but the conversation between the US leaders and Zelenskyy turned heated, ultimately leading to a swift White House exit by the Ukrainian President. 

• Markets took the geopolitical developments in stride, though, with the S&P 500 posting its second-best day of the year to finish February. 

This week, a fresh round of tariffs is set to be slapped on Mexico, Canada, and China. Trump has also threatened a 25% import duty on goods from Europe to commence on April 2. As the Tariff Man does his thing, consumers and investors have pulled a 180 on sentiment. 

• Recall that during the November-January Trump honeymoon period, optimism about a Goldilocks economy and booming stock prices was the zeitgeist among households and traders. That has reversed sharply. 

• In February, the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), and the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey all went south in a hurry. 

• UMich printed a 30-year high in 5-year inflation expectations, the CCI posted its biggest sequential drop since 2021, and investors’ forecast of future stock prices was nearly the most bearish since 2009.

The macro climate is indeed sketchy as we begin the final month of the first quarter. 

• Over the next five days, we will get key PMI data from S&P Global and the ISM on Monday and Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book of regional economic activity publishes on Wednesday afternoon, jobless claims will be in focus on Thursday morning after last week’s spike, and the February payrolls report comes on Friday. 

Let’s dive into the macro calendar.

Weekly Calendar Look Ahead

The first trading day of the month means the ISM Manufacturing PMI report hits the tape—the consensus calls for a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector of the US economy. 

• A 50.9 figure would come after the ISM Manufacturing PMI’s first expansion tally since October 2022. It’s clear that manufacturing is on the mend while the services slice of the economy is cooling off. But before the ISM Manufacturing survey crosses the wires, S&P Global’s version comes at 9:45 a.m. ET, and it too is forecast to come in near 51.

• Within both reports, markets will take their cue from the sub-readings like employment and price trends. 

• January Construction Spending hits Monday morning, as well, before Treasury auctions and Fed speak.

Tuesday’s data deck is light. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales has been firm lately, showing annual consumer spending growth ranging from 4% to 7%, but we would not be surprised to see it retreat given the weak January Retail Sales report and dismal Personal Spending data reported last Friday. 

• Target’s (TGT) earnings report comes in the morning.

• John Williams, the centrist president of the New York Fed, speaks in the afternoon at a Bloomberg Invest Event. 

• Tuesday is also when the White House plans to set 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports.

Labor market data begins rolling in on Wednesday. 

• ADP Employment for February arrives in the premarket—the consensus calls for a 140,000 private sector jobs gain which would be a sequential decline from +183,000 in January. 

• S&P Global Services PMI is next up after the opening bell before ISM Services PMI at 10 a.m. ET. 

• We'll be watching what nuggets are found in the Beige Book in the afternoon. 

• All of these data are key for the Treasury market. The 2-year yield fell below 2% for the first time since October last week, and it may be hard-pressed to go much lower. 

• So, if we see decent PMI numbers and even a hint of optimism in the Beige Book, then interest rates will likely rebound from a sharp 34 basis point drop in the 10-year rate last month.

Watch out for a possible rise in Challenger Job Cuts for February, which will be released Thursday morning. 

• Meta, Southwest Airlines, Starbucks, BP, and Estee Lauder are just a handful of companies that have recently announced layoffs. While it may be too soon to see DOGE’s efforts reflected in broad labor market gauges, we anticipate job cuts across the federal, state, and local public sectors at times this year. 

• Right after Challenger, the European Central Bank holds its policy meeting and presser, so the currency markets will be volatile. 

• Back home, Initial Claims jumped to 242,000 for the week of February 22, matching the highest since October, but our team says the timing of the Presidents’ Day holiday might have played a role in the rise. 

• Elsewhere, import/export data for January hits before the market opens, and that could be a doozy after the massive inventory build reported last Friday. 

• A final look at Q4 productivity shouldn’t cause much surprise. 

• It’s unlikely that the weekly AAII survey will improve much after the jarring data and the gone-awry US/Ukraine meeting last Friday. 

• Finally, Costco’s (COST) earnings report Thursday evening and its February same-store sales numbers will shed more light on consumer activity.

All eyes will be on Friday’s February jobs report. 

• Economists expect a 133,000-headline figure, which would be the softest since October, the unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.0%, near the lowest since May, and average hourly earnings are forecast to have risen 4.1% from a year ago. 

• January had a hot wage number, and we think that could be reversed somewhat. 

• Weak establishment and household surveys would support the bond market, potentially sending yields down, and with the market in ‘growth-scare’ mode, stocks would not like a low employment gain. 

• No matter how it plays out, there will be plenty of punditry in the moments after the release, including from Fed officials; Bowman, Williams, Kugler, and Chair Powell all speak around mid-day. 

Fiscal Policy Framework

Front and center this week is Trump’s intention to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and another 10% levy on goods from China. Whether all that gets inked into policy Tuesday morning remains to be seen—it continues to be a carrot-and-stick method to trade. 

It is also unclear how supposed tax cuts will be paid for if tariffs are used as a bargaining tool rather than a revenue-generating mechanism. It is a day-by-day approach with tariffs, but markets will know more by mid-week. Stocks may struggle if the aforementioned tariffs are put in place for an extended period, particularly if the POTUS goes through with a 25% import duty on Europe beginning in early April.

China has already indicated its plans to retaliate against US-imposed tariffs, so the trade war continues to deepen. At the same time, Trump’s reciprocal tariff tactic and delayed effective dates can be seen as an olive branch for dealmaking between countries and regions. 

All of this comes with the March 14 government shutdown deadline looming—we still expect a stopgap to be executed by then, but congressional Democrats will voice their intense opposition to DOGE and Trump’s aggressive stance toward Ukraine as the 14th draws closer.

On the tax front, specifics about spending cuts and what happens with the imminent expiration of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will create more drama between the right and left. 

Risks and Opportunities

As we detailed last week, the momentum trade remains under pressure. Hot stocks post-election have almost all round-tripped from November 5th. Still, the Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) snapped back sharply to the upside last Friday afternoon; its downside gap lingers at $48.46, having come within a few percentage points of that mark last week. 

It was a face-ripper of a rally to close February and the first positive Friday for the S&P 500 of Trump’s second term. Our team sees short-run risks still in play, so the first two weeks of the month could feature additional volatility.

The VIX rose above 22 at the high on Friday, and with few earnings reports on tap, the focus will be on the macro. The dollar’s bullish reversal over the back half of last week could set the stage for a near-term pullback in foreign stocks, too, while more upside may be in store for defensives like Consumer Staples. Real Estate, which has been strong to begin 2025, would be pressured if our call of a near-term trough in rates comes to fruition. Finally, price action in small caps continues to be weak, so caution is warranted there.

Quick Hits

• Consumer Staples led in February while Consumer Discretionary was weighed down by TSLA’s second-worst monthly performance ever and weakness in Amazon shares

  
  

• Bitcoin dropped below $79,000 last Friday morning before snapping back to above $95,000 by Sunday on news of a possible bitcoin reserve creation; its pullback coincides with significant mega-cap tech drawdowns

  
  

• Treasury's had their best month since December 2023 amid the growth scare

  
  

• With NVIDIA earnings in the books, the S&P 500’s Q4 EPS growth rate of more than 18% was the best in three years, but CY 2025 earnings estimates have retreated

  
  

• The bellwether Financials sector closed February at its highest monthly level in history, as did the junk bond index (total return)

  
  

• The 3-month/10-year Treasury yield spread inverted for the first time December last week