Summary: CPI and PPI reports put the spotlight on inflation this week as Powell testifies before Congress. The 10-year Treasury rate remains near the key 4.5% spot as global stocks rest near record highs.

The Setup & Where to Focus

It’s Inflation Week on Wall Street, and it follows a busy stretch of employment data to begin the month. The January jobs report released last Friday was mixed and clouded by revisions to the size of the labor force. The headline payrolls gain was modestly below estimates, but the unemployment rate fell from 4.09% to 4.01% despite a more than two million increase in the labor force due to annual revisions. Average hourly earnings jumped by 0.5% in the first month of the year, but that too may have been distorted by big Wall Street bonuses and weather impacts. While the BLS noted that the LA wildfires and a harsh cold snap late last month had no material impact on the establishment and household surveys, the number of people out of work due to weather spiked.

Before the NFP report, other labor market data pointed to a “good, not great” jobs situation. The ADP Private Payrolls report last week verified better than economists’ forecasts and the monthly Challenger Grey Job Cuts update revealed relatively light January firings. Finally, the JOLTS report for December missed the mark, with fewer job openings than the previous month. 

As the labor market holds steady after a mid-2024 dip in strength, the manufacturing sector appears to be on the rebound. For the first time in 26 months, the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey printed above 50, the demarcation between contraction and expansion. Moreover, the construction segment gained jobs per the payrolls report. Copper prices, meanwhile, touched a four-month high last week—yet another encouraging sign for the manufacturing slice of the economy. Tariff uncertainty continues to be a headwind, however, and the Fed will likely be on hold until the middle of the year. Also keeping the FOMC on pause was a hot February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report which showed a spike in both 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations. And that brings us to Inflation Week.

Weekly Calendar Look Ahead

Monday’s data deck is light, but after last Friday’s UMich survey, the NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations report—a broader gauge of household feelings on inflation—will be all the more important. A reading near 3% on the 1-year view would be encouraging and bullish for the Treasury market (lower interest rates). Treasury auctions come later in the morning, and on that note, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned last week that his focus is taming the 10-year rate.

The second inflation-adjacent report hits early Tuesday. The January NFIB Business Optimism Index polls small business owners throughout the country for their expectations on growth, inflation, and hiring plans. It leans Republican, and the December print was very strong. We'll see if this one pulls back as the UMich headline sentiment number did—tariff talk might have cooled the bullish fervor from December. Later that morning, Fed Chair Powell begins his two-day testimony before Congress, and we’ll be focused more on what he has to say on Wednesday after the CPI report.

CPI is indeed the major report of the week. The market expects a 0.3% rise in both the headline and core rates, bringing the year-on-year measures to 2.9% and 3.2%, respectively. That’s obviously above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, but keep in mind that we will be rolling off firm CPI prints from a year ago, so the rate should drift closer to the Fed’s inflation mandate level as the first half progresses. High headline and core rates would send yields up and put Powell in the hot seat before the House Financial Services Committee. Expect a lot of banter about the cost of eggs.

PPI is on the docket on Thursday. Once it’s released, we’ll have a good beat on what January PCE inflation will look like. The 10-year rate continues to straddle the 4.5% technical level, so this will be a pivotal week for the bond market, and hence the stock market. On the growth side of the ledger, the Census Bureau releases the January Retail Sales report on Friday—a 0% headline month-on-month figure is expected, but the core control group is seen rising between 0.3%-0.4%, which would be a healthy gain following a very strong December consumer spending report. Import/Export Prices, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and Business Inventories hit the tape later in the morning before the three-day weekend.

Fiscal Policy Framework

As Powell discusses monetary policy with Congressional committees, Bessent will continue to juggle uncertainty around tariffs. So far, tariffs have been a negotiating tool rather than an imminent revenue generator—only an extra 10% import duty on Chinese has been levied despite threats on Colombia, Canada, and Mexico. Trump has also hinted at targeting Europe in his next move. Elsewhere, discussions will heat up around the March 14 funding deadline as lawmakers work to avoid a government shutdown. 

Eyes will also be on Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Roughly 65,000 federal workers were said to accept the buyout offer devised by Musk. It comes as DOGE claims to be saving $1 billion a day due to efficiency gains, but last week a judge temporarily blocked the billionaire from implementing his so-called “fork in the road” proposal. Government workers are broadly protected from mass layoffs, so Musk has his work cut out for him to cut the federal workforce by 20%. All the while, further fiscal savings are hoped for by President Trump as he aims to shut down the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

Risks and Opportunities

There has been a firm “buy the dip” trend in markets in the past two-plus weeks. After back-to-back Sunday night mini panics in futures trading, stocks bounced back. Global equities, as measured by the All-Country World Index (ACWI) actually notched new all-time highs last week. So, the bias is bullish until evidence says otherwise. So long as yields hold steady, then we should continue to see a broadening of the rally; we’re talking Financials, Health Care, Materials, and the like. The Mag 7 stocks have lagged, and the latest so-so event was Amazon’s (AMZN) guidance last week in its Q4 earnings report. 

Opportunities continue to be seen in Europe with both the German DAX and UK FTSE 100 climbing to new highs. A weaker euro currency helps (more exports for Euro Area countries) along with beaten-down sentiment coming into 2025. We also like Energy here for a bounce as oil is expected to hold the $70 level. Consumer stocks will be in focus as retail earnings come in fast and furious now through early March.

Quick Hits

• Total US consumer credit surged by $40.85 billion in December 2024, marking the largest increase in history

• All S&P 500 sectors are positive YTD through last Friday, further evidence of a broadening in the rally

• Gold surged to new highs last week while bitcoin wavered below $100,000; the trend has been in favor of gold this year

• A VIX near 16 suggests muted volatility for the balance of the month